Financial Repression

It's not new but Financial Repression is a term seen recently in many articles, even in the mainstream media. It refers to a purposeful and methodical policy approach by government towards solving its deficit/debt problems by massively cheating investors and savers rather than contemplating default. This is accomplished through strong government control and intervention of interest rates and financial institutions. Savers are given close to zero interest in spite of considerable inflation, which is usually purposefully under-reported.

Because the problems are far more severe than in the past and because world markets far more fluid today, I doubt that governments will be able to control markets successfully enough this time around to prevent a bond collapse (higher interest rates) or some other financial crisis. Many have already begun to flock to gold and silver in an attempt to escape controlled markets. However, so far, the U.S. has succeeded in maintaining absurdly low yields on its bills and bonds, perhaps giving more support to some cynics' views that these are certificates of guaranteed confiscation. For a thorough treatment of "financial repression", please see this excellent article by Daniel R. Amerman.

QE3 Gets Closer as U.S. Economic Indicators Falter

As economic storm clouds gather (see CNBC for example), pressure mounts on the Federal Reserve to launch QE3. They will deny and obfuscate as long as possible but at a certain point they will mount their white stallions again and sally forth to the "rescue". Trillions more will be printed and trillions more in debt accumulated. Currencies, stock/bond markets and commodities will gyrate. Gold and silver will make new highs while U.S. credit ratings will be downgraded. But I'm getting ahead of myself a bit. The economic situation and especially the stock markets will first need to suffer a bit, enough to be noticed by the general public, maybe even some panic drops in market values, for example. Political and public consensus will then build around the new imperative of QE3 although it may be called something else to avoid the obvious embarrassment of creating a string of failed initiatives.

Is Greece the next Lehman?

Is Greece the next Lehman? Well, there are many who are suggesting a comparison, including me, but I'll just point to some published thoughts.

Federal Debt Ceiling and QE3

There is much talk about raising (or not) the U.S. debt ceiling and ending Quantitative Easing Round 2 (QE2). Honestly, I see all this as clumsy posturing. Americans and their leaders do not have the stomachs for living within their means, at least not yet. Obama and Congress are fooling around with $30B cuts, when the deficit is more like $1,400B. The world is awash with U.S. Treasury debt. The Chinese and others are pretty well saturated now. The Federal Reserve will have to continue printing to buy up most of the new bonds and bills issued by the Treasury. Raising the debt ceiling is also a priority for Wall Street - take a look at this. So QE3, in my opinion, is guaranteed. The U.S. will kick the can down the road yet again rather than face a default now.

Commodities at new highs!

Once again, commodities are at new highs. Some are at new highs, some are close to new highs and the precious metals are currently in the lead. Why is this? Has the reckless printing of money around the world anything to do with it? Or are speculators simultaneously attacking oil, coffee, copper, gold, silver, corn and soybeans? If printing your way to prosperity is the answer, then why doesn't the fed just send every citizen a cheque for $1,000,000. Of course, gasoline prices might just go to $50 a gallon and a 1/2 pint of strawberries might also then cost $35. H'mmm

Thoughts on "In Fed We Trust" by David Wessel

I just finished reading "In Fed We Trust" by David Wessel. The author details the drama within the Federal Reserve, the Treasury and other financial and regulatory organs leading up to and through the financial crisis of 2008-2010. Many behind the scenes revelations provide an insight into Ben Bernanke, his changing views and ultimate mantra of "Whatever it takes".
The problem with "whatever it takes" is that the collateral damage has likely been greater than the crisis that was being avoided. In fact, I would argue that at best we have merely kicked the can down the road. None of the underlying problems of debt, derivatives, pyramids, excessive speculation, financial wizardry and gimmickry have been addressed. There has been no return of focus on true economic output, balancing city, state and federal budgets and living within one's means. The recent Obama budget is based on rosy revenue forecasts, sheer make-believe. The Federal Reserve now holds more government Treasury securities than China and is set to print trillions more, since the world is awash with dollar-denominated debt and the Treasury must borrow or have budget shortfalls covered increasingly by printed dollars. So whatever it takes - wherever will it take us?

Failure of Keynesianism

Those who have studied the history of the Great Depression typically split into two groups. Those who think government tinkering (easy money) helped to create the bubble and further tinkering made it deeper and last longer versus those who posit that the problem was insufficient tinkering, stimulus, etc. Ben Bernanke seems to believe that a lot more Keynes is needed. Too bad that Keynes's followers seem incapable of such ardour during the so-called good times when governments and society is supposed to run surpluses in preparation for the bad times.
Anyway, we are continuing to run deficits and stimulate and print like crazy and I think this time round we will finally understand that Keynesian approaches don't solve any real problems of financial over-indulgence, impropriety, manipulation and outright fraud. In the end, only hard work, reduced expectations, lower consumption consistent with individual and national revenues and production are the key - reality, in other words, not smoke and mirrors. We are watching this grand experiment around the world, not just here in Canada and the U.S. And I thought I wasn't really into spectator sports!