Why do Nations Borrow ?

As the world gets increasingly mired in debt, Every day I listen to economists, talking heads as well as regular folks using terms such as "excessive debt", "manageable debt", "excellent (or poor) debt to GDP ratio", "low deficit", manageable deficit", etc. Debt and deficits may or may not be manageable but it is a slippery slope at best. Shakespeare had it right in Hamlet: "Neither a borrower nor a lender be; For loan oft loses both itself and friend, And borrowing dulls the edge of husbandry." When individuals enter into significant debt, it is usually to borrow money for a major purchase, such as a home with the idea of repaying this debt over one's working life. Many people, maybe most, especially in the past, have done exactly that. In addition, they have usually saved some money along the way and managed to leave something for their children. Individuals normally don't have chronic deficits because this would mean that such an individual was adding to his outstanding debt every year, rather than paying off the debt. This wouldn't make sense and would lead to bankruptcy. So, do individuals need to borrow in the first place? Well, maybe not, but if the idea is to acquire something like a home early on in one's career, or to start a business, this can make sense, provided that the repayment terms are not too onerous relative to one's earnings and spending habits and of course, that the loan is repaid.

But why would nations ever need to borrow, especially chronically (i.e. run deficits)? Since a nation is a very large collection of individuals, it would seem that whatever expenditures governments contemplate should be paid for by passing the hat around, usually in the form of taxes and duties. If you need to spend more, tax more. Why would any nation ever want to borrow money so future taxpayers would be on the hook? And why would you borrow chronically? Will it be easier to pay those taxes tomorrow than today? Do nations around the world expect some big infusion of money down the road from the equivalent of rich old aunt Millie passing away? Let's face it. Short of possibly having to repel an invading force where the very existence of a nation is at stake, sovereign borrowing just does not make any sense. What's worse, future interest payments will only serve to reduce the outlays available to provide citizens with government services. No, in fact, nations should purposefully run small surpluses for that rainy day to defray the unusually high costs of repelling aggressors or to deal with natural or man-made disasters.

Well, in fact, I think most of us know why nations borrow. It is human nature combined with politics. Politicians love to bribe the citizenry with their own or future taxpayers' money. And citizens? For the most part, they love to bribed. They vote for a better today, for their pet projects, etc. Tomorrow's pain is something that can be set aside for . . . tomorrow.  Unfortunately, history demonstrates that with time, borrowing costs mount and lenders become scarce, leading to debt crises. Then central banks are urged to print some of the shortfalls. This process is often disguised to reduce the rate at which confidence is eroding. We engage in stimulus, quantitative easing, blah, blah, blah. Eventually, as confidence erodes even more, increasingly massive printing becomes the only short-term measure available to avoid banking and institutional failures and finally city, state and sovereign failures. Unfortunately, history also shows that such a remedy eventually destroys that nation's currency in addition to that nation ultimately succumbing economically. If a minor currency is destroyed in this way, that country's transactions and trade can be substituted in some other currency, such as the $US. However, should that currency be the world's principal reserve currency . . .

U.S. Debt Farce

It's sad to watch the U.S. debt talks. The wrangling is bad enough but the really sad part, in my view,  is that virtually nobody in the halls of power is ready to propose actually balancing the budget right now! Not tomorrow, the next year, in the next 10 years - but right now. America and most other nation seem incapable of doing what every parent or credit counselor would tell his 21-year old who was spending way beyond his means - cut up the credit cards, cut back on the spending and work harder to pay off the debts you should not have acquired in the first place. Americans have been living beyond their means for decades now. After all, that's what running a deficit is. Every deficit adds to the existing debt or national mortgage. What a concept! A growing mortgage! It's entirely nonsensical but nations the world over have bought into this as a new normal, a kind of global financial insanity whereby even known economists with many degrees and awards spout such gibberish as "manageable deficits". State/provincial governments as well as municipalities have also fallen victim to the disease. No, the talks on raising the debt limit in the U.S. are really pretty well a side-show. It's just arguing about how far to kick the can down the road before doing it all over again. In any event, in the case of the U.S., it should be renamed the "Printing Limit" because no one is willing or able to lend the U.S. that kind of money any more. As has increasingly been the case in the last few years, the Federal Reserve simply prints up what the Treasury needs and couldn't borrow through new bond issues. Sad, very, very sad to see how a once proud and independent country is becoming a deadbeat.

Moody & other ratings agencies under fire for downgrading Portugal

The European Commission has come down hard on international credit ratings agencies following the downgrade of Portugal by Moody's. It seems that ratings agencies are finally getting a bit more truthful, suggesting that some governments can't repay their obligations (are deadbeats). Can't have that now, can we? However, I wouldn't put it past this bunch to be in cahoots with the U.S. or more specifically, Wall Street, as European Commission spokesman Amadeu Altafaj seemed to hint. Great way for a solid pop in the $U.S. and lots of money made for those in the know. Anyway, a good argument can be made that this was at least partly manipulation. Now it's time for Moody's and others to level the playing field and speak the truth about the biggest deadbeat of them all - the U.S.

Fear in Europe over Greece Default

Europe is fretting over Greece. While the future of the EU and the Euro may indeed be at risk, the bigger concern probably actually relates to the exposure of French and German banks and their governments to a possible Greek default. The citizens of Europe might be even less likely to support what is actually a French/German banking bailout than a Greek bailout if this aspect is highlighted. Take a look at the chart below.

If Greece defaults, then a banking bailout would be almost a certainty. Otherwise, a domino effect would probably take down the world's whole banking system. So the choices are: 1) Bailout Greece (again and again) or 2) Let Greece default and bail out the banks instead. Neither seems to be an attractive option when considering the likely backlash from voters.

Greece: the next Lehman - update

In a previous post, I talked about Greece having the potential of becoming the next Lehman. Well, yesterday, the New York Times chimed in with a similar theme. I believe the problem of Greece is still under-appreciated in North America. Just as Lehman had global consequences, so might Greece!

Financial Repression

It's not new but Financial Repression is a term seen recently in many articles, even in the mainstream media. It refers to a purposeful and methodical policy approach by government towards solving its deficit/debt problems by massively cheating investors and savers rather than contemplating default. This is accomplished through strong government control and intervention of interest rates and financial institutions. Savers are given close to zero interest in spite of considerable inflation, which is usually purposefully under-reported.

Because the problems are far more severe than in the past and because world markets far more fluid today, I doubt that governments will be able to control markets successfully enough this time around to prevent a bond collapse (higher interest rates) or some other financial crisis. Many have already begun to flock to gold and silver in an attempt to escape controlled markets. However, so far, the U.S. has succeeded in maintaining absurdly low yields on its bills and bonds, perhaps giving more support to some cynics' views that these are certificates of guaranteed confiscation. For a thorough treatment of "financial repression", please see this excellent article by Daniel R. Amerman.

QE3 Gets Closer as U.S. Economic Indicators Falter

As economic storm clouds gather (see CNBC for example), pressure mounts on the Federal Reserve to launch QE3. They will deny and obfuscate as long as possible but at a certain point they will mount their white stallions again and sally forth to the "rescue". Trillions more will be printed and trillions more in debt accumulated. Currencies, stock/bond markets and commodities will gyrate. Gold and silver will make new highs while U.S. credit ratings will be downgraded. But I'm getting ahead of myself a bit. The economic situation and especially the stock markets will first need to suffer a bit, enough to be noticed by the general public, maybe even some panic drops in market values, for example. Political and public consensus will then build around the new imperative of QE3 although it may be called something else to avoid the obvious embarrassment of creating a string of failed initiatives.